{"type":0,"nickname":"MoneyCome.in","title":"參與科技的成長 vs 歷久不衰傳統公司，誰的投資效果好？ | 以3008大立光、1232大統益為例","myCatId":"5d6299023286fe05f50e6bd8","myCatName":"存股複利","preview":{"essayId":"603288fa3286fe146519718e","at":"s3","imgId":"6032898e3286fe14651971d3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_6032898e3286fe14651971d3.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_6032898e3286fe14651971d3.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_6032898e3286fe14651971d3.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_6032898e3286fe14651971d3.png"}},"intro":"## 智慧型手機的崛起\n\n最近有位朋友尋問\n\n2007年~2017年，是智慧型手機的大爆發\n若完全參與了整段的成長過程，想必成果豐碩\n\n以3008大立光為例 (蘋概股)\n從2007-2017年，股價從4xx漲至最高6075，將近15倍\n\n下個十年，電動車的呼聲最高，有機會找到下一個大立光嗎？\n\n","hashtags":[],"browsingCnt":3853,"createTime":1613924602584,"essayDate":"2021-02-22","essayTime":1613952000000,"lastModify":1613926631509,"essayId":"603288fa3286fe146519718e","sets":[{"imgId":"6032898e3286fe14651971d3","at":"s3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_6032898e3286fe14651971d3.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_6032898e3286fe14651971d3.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_6032898e3286fe14651971d3.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_6032898e3286fe14651971d3.png"},"text":"## 智慧型手機的崛起\n\n最近有位朋友尋問\n[quote]\n2007年~2017年，是智慧型手機的大爆發\n若完全參與了整段的成長過程，想必成果豐碩\n\n以3008大立光為例 (蘋概股)\n從2007-2017年，股價從4xx漲至最高6075，將近15倍\n\n下個十年，電動車的呼聲最高，有機會找到下一個大立光嗎？\n[/quote]","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":0.6032,"w":994,"h":1648,"setId":"603288fa3286fe146519718f"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"## 價差思維 vs 複利思維\n\n首先我們以3008大立光與1232大統益為例，進行解說\n\n3008大立光，是標準的蘋概股\n1232大統益，是標準的傳產，做沙拉油的，市佔超過5成\n\n大立光:\n從2007-2017年，股價從4xx漲至最高6075，將近15倍\n大統益:\n從2007-2017年，股價從30漲至最高96.2，將近3倍\n\n以股價來看，好像大立光賺很大\n但若以複利的角度來看呢？大統益甚至還贏過大立光\n","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"603288fa3286fe1465197190"},{"imgId":"60328ac83286fe14651972c8","at":"s3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_60328ac83286fe14651972c8.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_60328ac83286fe14651972c8.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_60328ac83286fe14651972c8.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_60328ac83286fe14651972c8.png"},"text":"▲ 2006-2018年大立光與大統益存股市值比較\n以市值來說，大立光有幾年可以贏過大統益\n但長期來說幾乎被壓著打","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":1.5373,"w":1196,"h":778,"setId":"603290703286fe14651973ad"},{"imgId":"60328ac83286fe14651972c9","at":"s3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_60328ac83286fe14651972c9.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_60328ac83286fe14651972c9.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_60328ac83286fe14651972c9.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_60328ac83286fe14651972c9.png"},"text":"▲ 2006-2018年大立光與大統益存股現金股利比較\n以現金股利來說，大統益更是贏上許多\n原因也在於大立光是科技相關類股，需要留些錢進行下一年的資本支出，股利自然不高\n好處是，不會亂花股東的錢，股東也不用煩惱怎麼使用這筆錢，交給公司進行複利即可","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":1.5088,"w":1204,"h":798,"setId":"603290703286fe14651973ae"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"從以上兩張圖顯示\n有護城河的傳產，其實複利效果不會輸科技成長\n就算大立光十年股價漲了15倍，大統益只漲3倍\n但整理複利效果(股利再投入)其實不會差大立光太多","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"603290703286fe14651973af"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"## 電動車呢？\n\n由智慧型手機的例子，我們得到的結論是\n好的傳產公司，複利效果也不一定輸科技成長公司\n未來的事很難說，我們不能直接說電動車也和智慧型手機的結果一樣\n\n但可以肯定的是\n如果每10-15年是科技的一個大週期\n2007-2018可謂是智慧型手機的年代\n2021-2035可能就是電動車,AI,5G的年代\n沙拉油公司，則含概了這兩個年代。甚至未來應該也不太會變\n\n如果你想學巴菲特爺爺一樣，喜歡投資的標是產品歷久不變，那大統益會是你的選擇；\n如果你喜歡參與每個年代的科技成長，那十年前你要找到大立光，未來十年可能要再找找；\n","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"603290703286fe14651973b0"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"## 科技成長股不值得投資？\n\n最後必須補充一下\n本文是以大立光與大統益為例子所得出的結論，並不代表任何投資建議\n\n複利是一個數字遊戲\n科技的成長是有可能是遠超過傳產的\n例如上個十年的智慧型手機是10~20%年成長，下個十年的新科技是50~70%的成長\n結論可能就不一樣\n\n找到適合自己的很重要 :)","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"603290703286fe14651973b1"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"資料來源：\nhttps://www.moneycome.in/tool/compound_interest_comparison?stkCodes=3008,1232","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"603290703286fe14651973b2"}],"originalLinkHint":{"en":{"text":"Orignal Link: https://www.tipga.com/e/603288fa3286fe146519718e","html":"\u003cdiv class=\"originalLinkHintWrapper tOverflow\"\u003eOrignal Link: \u003ca href=\"https://www.tipga.com/e/603288fa3286fe146519718e\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ehttps://www.tipga.com/e/603288fa3286fe146519718e\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},"zh_TW":{"text":"原文連結：https://www.tipga.com/e/603288fa3286fe146519718e","html":"\u003cdiv class=\"originalLinkHintWrapper tOverflow\"\u003e原文連結：\u003ca href=\"https://www.tipga.com/e/603288fa3286fe146519718e\" 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