{"type":0,"nickname":"MoneyCome.in","title":"參與科技的成長 vs 歷久不衰傳統公司,誰的投資效果好? | 以3008大立光、1232大統益為例","myCatId":"5d6299023286fe05f50e6bd8","myCatName":"存股複利","preview":{"essayId":"603288fa3286fe146519718e","at":"s3","imgId":"6032898e3286fe14651971d3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_6032898e3286fe14651971d3.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_6032898e3286fe14651971d3.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_6032898e3286fe14651971d3.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_6032898e3286fe14651971d3.png"}},"intro":"## 智慧型手機的崛起\n\n最近有位朋友尋問\n\n2007年~2017年,是智慧型手機的大爆發\n若完全參與了整段的成長過程,想必成果豐碩\n\n以3008大立光為例 (蘋概股)\n從2007-2017年,股價從4xx漲至最高6075,將近15倍\n\n下個十年,電動車的呼聲最高,有機會找到下一個大立光嗎?\n\n","hashtags":[],"browsingCnt":2771,"createTime":1613924602584,"essayDate":"2021-02-22","essayTime":1613952000000,"lastModify":1613926631509,"essayId":"603288fa3286fe146519718e","sets":[{"imgId":"6032898e3286fe14651971d3","at":"s3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_6032898e3286fe14651971d3.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_6032898e3286fe14651971d3.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_6032898e3286fe14651971d3.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_6032898e3286fe14651971d3.png"},"text":"## 智慧型手機的崛起\n\n最近有位朋友尋問\n[quote]\n2007年~2017年,是智慧型手機的大爆發\n若完全參與了整段的成長過程,想必成果豐碩\n\n以3008大立光為例 (蘋概股)\n從2007-2017年,股價從4xx漲至最高6075,將近15倍\n\n下個十年,電動車的呼聲最高,有機會找到下一個大立光嗎?\n[/quote]","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":0.6032,"w":994,"h":1648,"setId":"603288fa3286fe146519718f"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"## 價差思維 vs 複利思維\n\n首先我們以3008大立光與1232大統益為例,進行解說\n\n3008大立光,是標準的蘋概股\n1232大統益,是標準的傳產,做沙拉油的,市佔超過5成\n\n大立光:\n從2007-2017年,股價從4xx漲至最高6075,將近15倍\n大統益:\n從2007-2017年,股價從30漲至最高96.2,將近3倍\n\n以股價來看,好像大立光賺很大\n但若以複利的角度來看呢?大統益甚至還贏過大立光\n","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"603288fa3286fe1465197190"},{"imgId":"60328ac83286fe14651972c8","at":"s3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_60328ac83286fe14651972c8.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_60328ac83286fe14651972c8.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_60328ac83286fe14651972c8.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_60328ac83286fe14651972c8.png"},"text":"▲ 2006-2018年大立光與大統益存股市值比較\n以市值來說,大立光有幾年可以贏過大統益\n但長期來說幾乎被壓著打","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":1.5373,"w":1196,"h":778,"setId":"603290703286fe14651973ad"},{"imgId":"60328ac83286fe14651972c9","at":"s3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_60328ac83286fe14651972c9.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_60328ac83286fe14651972c9.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_60328ac83286fe14651972c9.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_60328ac83286fe14651972c9.png"},"text":"▲ 2006-2018年大立光與大統益存股現金股利比較\n以現金股利來說,大統益更是贏上許多\n原因也在於大立光是科技相關類股,需要留些錢進行下一年的資本支出,股利自然不高\n好處是,不會亂花股東的錢,股東也不用煩惱怎麼使用這筆錢,交給公司進行複利即可","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":1.5088,"w":1204,"h":798,"setId":"603290703286fe14651973ae"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"從以上兩張圖顯示\n有護城河的傳產,其實複利效果不會輸科技成長\n就算大立光十年股價漲了15倍,大統益只漲3倍\n但整理複利效果(股利再投入)其實不會差大立光太多","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"603290703286fe14651973af"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"## 電動車呢?\n\n由智慧型手機的例子,我們得到的結論是\n好的傳產公司,複利效果也不一定輸科技成長公司\n未來的事很難說,我們不能直接說電動車也和智慧型手機的結果一樣\n\n但可以肯定的是\n如果每10-15年是科技的一個大週期\n2007-2018可謂是智慧型手機的年代\n2021-2035可能就是電動車,AI,5G的年代\n沙拉油公司,則含概了這兩個年代。甚至未來應該也不太會變\n\n如果你想學巴菲特爺爺一樣,喜歡投資的標是產品歷久不變,那大統益會是你的選擇;\n如果你喜歡參與每個年代的科技成長,那十年前你要找到大立光,未來十年可能要再找找;\n","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"603290703286fe14651973b0"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"## 科技成長股不值得投資?\n\n最後必須補充一下\n本文是以大立光與大統益為例子所得出的結論,並不代表任何投資建議\n\n複利是一個數字遊戲\n科技的成長是有可能是遠超過傳產的\n例如上個十年的智慧型手機是10~20%年成長,下個十年的新科技是50~70%的成長\n結論可能就不一樣\n\n找到適合自己的很重要 :)","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"603290703286fe14651973b1"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"資料來源:\nhttps://www.moneycome.in/tool/compound_interest_comparison?stkCodes=3008,1232","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"603290703286fe14651973b2"}],"originalLinkHint":{"en":{"text":"Orignal Link: https://www.tipga.com/e/603288fa3286fe146519718e","html":"\u003cdiv class=\"originalLinkHintWrapper tOverflow\"\u003eOrignal Link: \u003ca href=\"https://www.tipga.com/e/603288fa3286fe146519718e\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ehttps://www.tipga.com/e/603288fa3286fe146519718e\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},"zh_TW":{"text":"原文連結:https://www.tipga.com/e/603288fa3286fe146519718e","html":"\u003cdiv class=\"originalLinkHintWrapper tOverflow\"\u003e原文連結:\u003ca href=\"https://www.tipga.com/e/603288fa3286fe146519718e\" 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