{"type":0,"nickname":"MoneyCome.in","title":"哪種存股好？成長股、定存股，或景氣循環股？ | 資產類型複利比較","myCatId":"5d6299023286fe05f50e6bd8","myCatName":"存股複利","preview":{"essayId":"5ecb7f163286fe1091f102fe","at":"s3","imgId":"5ecb919f3286fe2acb9d8496","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_5ecb919f3286fe2acb9d8496.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_5ecb919f3286fe2acb9d8496.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5ecb919f3286fe2acb9d8496.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5ecb919f3286fe2acb9d8496.png"}},"intro":"#### 資產類型 ####\n\n股票(資產)大致分成幾種類型\n1、成長股：穩穩的每年成長\n2、定存股：穩穩的每年都是一樣的表現\n3、景氣循環股：每3~5年一個循環，有高低點轉換\n## 存哪種類型？ ##\n\n存股族經常會問\n到底要存成長股、定存股、或景氣循環股呢？\n\n會有這樣的疑問，主因存股族最終的目","hashtags":["#單位數"],"browsingCnt":3029,"createTime":1590394646716,"essayDate":"2020-05-25","essayTime":1590364800000,"lastModify":1590399426370,"essayId":"5ecb7f163286fe1091f102fe","sets":[{"imgId":"5ecb919f3286fe2acb9d8496","at":"s3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_5ecb919f3286fe2acb9d8496.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_5ecb919f3286fe2acb9d8496.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5ecb919f3286fe2acb9d8496.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5ecb919f3286fe2acb9d8496.png"},"text":"#### 資產類型 ####\n\n股票(資產)大致分成幾種類型\n1、成長股：穩穩的每年成長\n2、定存股：穩穩的每年都是一樣的表現\n3、景氣循環股：每3~5年一個循環，有高低點轉換","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":1.4148,"w":1030,"h":728,"setId":"5ecb87983286fe108af11681"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"## 存哪種類型？ ##\n\n存股族經常會問\n到底要存成長股、定存股、或景氣循環股呢？\n\n會有這樣的疑問，主因存股族最終的目標是希望得到更多的被動收入\n\n成長股因成本愈墊愈高，定期定額買到的單位數愈來愈少；\n反之，景氣循環股可趁股價低迷時買入更多的#單位數，是不是更快達到目標呢？\n\n本文將以簡單的數學進行回答","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"5ecb87983286fe108af11682"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"#### 成長股 vs 景氣循環股 ####\n\n首先使用MoneyCome提供的比較工具，進行比較\n(工具： https://www.moneycome.in/tool/which_asset_type )\n並採用以下假設：\n(1)\n【本金100萬元、年投入6萬元(相當於5000元/月)、執行期間20年】\n(2)\n成長股 ：年成長10.0 %，現金股利5.0 %\n景氣循環股：年波動100 %，現金股利7.5 %\n定存股 ：年成長0 %，現金股利6.0 %\n","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"5ecb87983286fe108af11683"},{"imgId":"5ecb84a13286fe1091f10376","at":"s3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_5ecb84a13286fe1091f10376.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_5ecb84a13286fe1091f10376.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5ecb84a13286fe1091f10376.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5ecb84a13286fe1091f10376.png"},"text":"以市值來說，有幾個現象：\n\n1.\n景氣循環股在20年期間，總共經過3個循環\n在第一個環循(C1)時，前五年都能勝過成長股\n在第二個環循(C2)時，前四年都能勝過成長股，第五年開始輸\n在第三個環循(C3)時，前三年都能勝過成長股，第四年開始輸\n\n簡單的結論就是\n成長股的複利效應，愈後面表現愈強\n基本不是景氣循環股可以追的上的\n\n2.\n景氣循環股的波動，愈後面波動愈大\n在C1循環時，高低差在590萬~190萬間，波動-400萬\n同期間成長股約190萬~320萬，波動+130萬\n在C3循環時，高低差在1600萬~510萬間，波動-1090萬\n同期間成長股約1300萬~2000萬，波動+700萬\n\n景氣循環股正負波動太大，隨著複利效應，波動更大\n成長股則是不斷正成長\n長期持有景氣循環股的投資者，心理面的考驗更大\n","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":1.3438,"w":1032,"h":768,"setId":"5ecb87983286fe108af11684"},{"imgId":"5ecb88ce3286fe108af11759","at":"s3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_5ecb88ce3286fe108af11759.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_5ecb88ce3286fe108af11759.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5ecb88ce3286fe108af11759.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5ecb88ce3286fe108af11759.png"},"text":"以每年領取的股利來說，幾個現象和市值也蠻類似的\n\n1.\n景氣循環股在20年期間，總共經過3個循環\n每次循環，將愈提早輸給成長股\n\n2.\n景氣循環股的波動，愈後面波動愈大\n在C1循環時，高低差在40萬~13萬間，波動-27萬\n同期間成長股約17萬~29萬，波動+12萬\n在C3循環時，高低差在110萬~35萬間，波動-75萬\n同期間成長股約110萬~180萬，波動+70萬\n\n景氣循環股正負波動太大，隨著複利效應，波動更大\n成長股的股利不斷正成長\n試想，持有景氣循環股，每年領的股利最高110萬，最低35萬\n這樣的生活適合退休生活嗎？\n","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":1.3154,"w":1026,"h":780,"setId":"5ecb8f863286fe2acb9d8176"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"## 小結 ##\n\n單純討論數學模型時\n成長股比較適合長期持有，但也不是說不能持有景氣循環股\n在有把握抓到景氣區間的情況，景氣循環股賺的還是比較快\n但要懂的在高點放手，考驗的是投資人的智慧","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"5ecb8f863286fe2acb9d8177"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"#### 景氣循環 vs 大跌大買 ####\n\n再來會衍申另一個問題\n由上述結果，景氣循環股用定期定額的方式顯然不明智\n如果大跌時大買呢？有沒有機會贏過成長股？","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"5ecb8f863286fe2acb9d8178"},{"imgId":"5ecb90033286fe2acb9d8231","at":"s3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_5ecb90033286fe2acb9d8231.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_5ecb90033286fe2acb9d8231.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5ecb90033286fe2acb9d8231.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5ecb90033286fe2acb9d8231.png"},"text":"## 崩盤再加碼 ##\n\n我們使用MoneyCome的工具「崩盤再加碼」的選項\n並假設這位投資人資金配置時，一開始本金為100萬元\n等待景氣不佳時，隨時加碼100萬元 (好威^^\")","layout":1,"from":0,"aspectRatio":1.2246,"w":1014,"h":828,"setId":"5ecb8f863286fe2acb9d8179"},{"imgId":"5ecb916d3286fe2acb9d8492","at":"s3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_5ecb916d3286fe2acb9d8492.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_5ecb916d3286fe2acb9d8492.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5ecb916d3286fe2acb9d8492.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5ecb916d3286fe2acb9d8492.png"},"text":"## 景氣循環股的投資績效 ##\n\n崩盤再加碼的效果，果然可以改善景氣循環股用定期定額績效不佳的問題","layout":1,"from":0,"aspectRatio":1.4251,"w":1009,"h":708,"setId":"5ecb8f863286fe2acb9d817a"},{"imgId":"5ecb8e403286fe2acb9d8074","at":"s3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_5ecb8e403286fe2acb9d8074.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_5ecb8e403286fe2acb9d8074.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5ecb8e403286fe2acb9d8074.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5ecb8e403286fe2acb9d8074.png"},"text":"## 付出成本 ##\n\n使用「崩盤再加碼」的選項\n雖然可以彌補績效不穩的問題，但付出的成本可是非常驚人的\n\n成長股的部份\n因為數學假設的關係，並沒有崩盤的問題，所以沒有加碼的時機\n\n景氣循環股的部份\n在景氣往下時，基本上是年年加碼\n以本例來說，共三個循環，歷經9年景氣低迷，共加碼900萬\n雖然看似彌補了績效不佳的問題，但如果計算年化報酬率，還是慘輸","layout":1,"from":0,"aspectRatio":2.3767,"w":1022,"h":430,"setId":"5ecb8f863286fe2acb9d817b"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"年化報酬率可以解釋為投資本金運用的效率\n雖然感覺有追上成長股，但付出的成本巨大\n效率自然低","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"5ecb8f863286fe2acb9d817c"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"#### 結論 ####\n\n景氣循環股：\n景氣好時賺的快，景氣差時跌的猛\n若能在景氣谷底時小額配置一些，也能參與景氣繁榮的果實\n\n成長股：\n如同巴菲特說的滾雪球，愈後面愈吃香\n\n經由本文的分析\n存股族適合什麼樣類型的股票呢？\n留給大家自行思考^_^","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"5ecb90ac3286fe2acb9d83d6"},{"imgId":"","at":"parseUrl","url":{"large":"https://www.moneycome.in/tool/which_asset_type","medium":"https://www.moneycome.in/tool/which_asset_type","small":"https://www.moneycome.in/tool/which_asset_type","thumbnail":"https://www.moneycome.in/tool/which_asset_type"},"text":"MoneyCome提供不同資產類型的複利試算，讓投資者更清楚知道該選擇什麼類型的資產進行長期投資。","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"parseUrlResult":{"title":"\n 資產類型比較 - 成長股或景氣循環股？ - MoneyCome.in\n ","description":"MoneyCome提供不同資產類型的複利試算，讓投資者更清楚知道該選擇什麼類型的資產進行長期投資。","host":"www.moneycome.in","url":"https://www.moneycome.in/tool/which_asset_type","charset":"utf-8","og:title":"資產類型比較 - 成長股或景氣循環股？ @[ MoneyCome.in ]","og:description":"MoneyCome提供不同資產類型的複利試算，讓投資者更清楚知道該選擇什麼類型的資產進行長期投資。","og:image":"https://www.moneycome.in/img/pic/which_asset_type.png","first_img":"https://www.moneycome.in//img/portfolio.png","preview_img":"https://www.moneycome.in/img/pic/which_asset_type.png"},"setId":"5ecb91a33286fe2acb9d84a5"}],"originalLinkHint":{"en":{"text":"Orignal Link: https://www.tipga.com/e/5ecb7f163286fe1091f102fe","html":"\u003cdiv class=\"originalLinkHintWrapper tOverflow\"\u003eOrignal Link: \u003ca href=\"https://www.tipga.com/e/5ecb7f163286fe1091f102fe\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ehttps://www.tipga.com/e/5ecb7f163286fe1091f102fe\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},"zh_TW":{"text":"原文連結：https://www.tipga.com/e/5ecb7f163286fe1091f102fe","html":"\u003cdiv class=\"originalLinkHintWrapper tOverflow\"\u003e原文連結：\u003ca href=\"https://www.tipga.com/e/5ecb7f163286fe1091f102fe\" 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