{"type":0,"nickname":"MoneyCome.in","title":"華倫老師ETF存股比較 | 2005-2019年間","myCatId":"5d6299023286fe05f50e6bd8","myCatName":"存股複利","preview":{"essayId":"5d7bc80a3286fe6728569a07","at":"s3","imgId":"5d7d146f3286fe58d48358f5","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_5d7d146f3286fe58d48358f5.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_5d7d146f3286fe58d48358f5.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5d7d146f3286fe58d48358f5.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5d7d146f3286fe58d48358f5.png"}},"intro":"近年來，網路聲量頗高的流浪教師周文老師(華倫)\n靠著學習股神巴菲特的投資心法應用在台股上，累積不少粉絲\n老師選定的標的也不少(華倫ETF)\n不少投資人都好奇，究竟哪一檔長期表現最好呢？\n本文就幫大家整理從2005~2019期間，長期存股的績效表現\n## 複利比較 ##\n\n首先就2005~2019存股","hashtags":["#日友","#卜蜂","#大地","#大統益","#中華食","#統一超","#全家","#中華電","#崑鼎","#中保","#德麥","#一零四","#可寧衛"],"browsingCnt":8624,"createTime":1568393226065,"essayDate":"2019-09-14","essayTime":1568419200000,"lastModify":1568534393506,"essayId":"5d7bc80a3286fe6728569a07","sets":[{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"近年來，網路聲量頗高的流浪教師周文老師(華倫)\n靠著學習股神巴菲特的投資心法應用在台股上，累積不少粉絲\n老師選定的標的也不少(華倫ETF)\n不少投資人都好奇，究竟哪一檔長期表現最好呢？\n本文就幫大家整理從2005~2019期間，長期存股的績效表現","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"5d7bc80a3286fe67285699f7"},{"imgId":"5d7d146f3286fe58d48358f5","at":"s3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_5d7d146f3286fe58d48358f5.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_5d7d146f3286fe58d48358f5.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5d7d146f3286fe58d48358f5.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5d7d146f3286fe58d48358f5.png"},"text":"## 複利比較 ##\n\n首先就2005~2019存股期間\n本金100萬，每年投入6萬元(相當於每月投入5000元)\n並且領到的現金股利持續再投入，領到的股票股利也沒有賣出\n以這樣的假設下，計算至2019年時，究竟會滾出多少市值呢？(請見下表)\n(使用工具：https://www.moneycome.in/tool/compound_interest )","layout":1,"from":0,"aspectRatio":1.9624,"w":1566,"h":798,"setId":"5d7bc80a3286fe67285699f8"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"進行比較的公司有#日友(8341)、#卜蜂(1215)、#大地(8437)、#大統益(1232)、#中華食(4205)、#統一超(2912)、#全家(5903)、#中華電(2412)、#崑鼎(6803)、#中保(9917)、#德麥(1264)、#一零四(3130)、#可寧衛(8422)\n\n由於每家公司的資料區間不太一樣\n我們以年化報酬率(最右欄)來看會比較公平\n整體來說，大多標的都有超過10%的表現\n\n特別注意的是，期數(年)愈長，複利效果愈大，公司的年化資料也愈可信\n像是卜蜂、大統益、中華食，都超過15年配息，且年化超過15%，可謂A+級企業\n統一超、全家、中華電，都有10%以上的表現，也稱的上A級企業\n\n期末市值方面\n卜蜂、大統益、中華食、統一超這15年來市值成長倍數分別是\n16.9倍、12.1倍、9.7倍、7.6倍，表現驚人\n[quote]\n以卜蜂為例：\n市值成長倍數 = 終值3213萬 / 投資額190萬 = 16.9倍\n[/quote]\n\n\n將年化報酬率制成長條圖，方便比較","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"5d7bc80a3286fe67285699f9"},{"imgId":"5d7d14813286fe58d4835921","at":"s3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_5d7d14813286fe58d4835921.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_5d7d14813286fe58d4835921.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5d7d14813286fe58d4835921.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5d7d14813286fe58d4835921.png"},"text":"第一名的企業是日友，年化約35%，比定存好非常多\n第二名的企業是卜蜂，年化約20%，也比定存好非常多\n若以股神巴菲特長年20%的績效為選股考量\n日友、卜蜂、大地、大統益、中華食，都有機會成為巴菲特考慮的標的","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":2.4575,"w":1504,"h":612,"setId":"5d7bc80a3286fe67285699fa"},{"imgId":"5d7bcd833286fe672856a226","at":"s3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_5d7bcd833286fe672856a226.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_5d7bcd833286fe672856a226.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5d7bcd833286fe672856a226.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5d7bcd833286fe672856a226.png"},"text":"## 卜蜂 ##\n\n卜蜂表現為何這麼好呢？\n探究原因，近幾年的獲利突然上升\n再加上本例做法是每年的股利再投入\n前幾年累積了很多的單位數，最後大爆發\n可以稱的上：[前期普通濕的雪+後期很濕的雪] \u0026 [很長的坡] = 超級滾雪球\n(資料來源：財報狗)","layout":1,"from":0,"aspectRatio":1.3843,"w":1412,"h":1020,"setId":"5d7bc80a3286fe67285699fb"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"像卜蜂這樣的標的\n雖然2016開始獲利大爆發，但2018獲利又衰退\n違反了巴菲特強調的「可預估性」\n\n我們換大統益看看","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"5d7bceae3286fe672856a4f7"},{"imgId":"5d7bce293286fe672856a3cf","at":"s3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_5d7bce293286fe672856a3cf.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_5d7bce293286fe672856a3cf.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5d7bce293286fe672856a3cf.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5d7bce293286fe672856a3cf.png"},"text":"## 大統益 ##\n\n大統益是本文分析的第二名\n獲利穩定，年年配息，且較穩定的成長\n(資料來源：財報狗)","layout":1,"from":0,"aspectRatio":1.4078,"w":1436,"h":1020,"setId":"5d7bc80a3286fe67285699fc"},{"imgId":"5d7d15dc3286fe58d4835ae7","at":"s3","url":{"large":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/l_5d7d15dc3286fe58d4835ae7.png","medium":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/m_5d7d15dc3286fe58d4835ae7.png","small":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5d7d15dc3286fe58d4835ae7.png","thumbnail":"https://tipga.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/0/MoneyCome.in/s_5d7d15dc3286fe58d4835ae7.png"},"text":"15年下來，複利表現自然不俗\n市值年年成長，自然也是意料中的事\n(資料來源：https://www.moneycome.in )","layout":1,"from":0,"aspectRatio":1.6436,"w":1282,"h":780,"setId":"5d7bc80a3286fe67285699fd"},{"imgId":"","at":"","url":{"large":"","medium":"","small":"","thumbnail":""},"text":"像大統益這樣容易評估標的，其實買在最低價與最高價，相差不大\n\n\n股神巴菲特強調\n「投資就是要找到很濕的雪，與很長的坡」\n這句話的意思是，找到很賺錢的公司，最好是長期都能配出現金的公司\n這樣在滾動複利時，時間拉長，效果會很可觀的\n\n(本文並沒有推薦任何股票，投資前請自行評估)","layout":0,"from":0,"aspectRatio":-1,"w":-1,"h":-1,"setId":"5d7bc80a3286fe67285699fe"}],"originalLinkHint":{"en":{"text":"Orignal Link: https://www.tipga.com/e/5d7bc80a3286fe6728569a07","html":"\u003cdiv class=\"originalLinkHintWrapper tOverflow\"\u003eOrignal Link: \u003ca href=\"https://www.tipga.com/e/5d7bc80a3286fe6728569a07\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ehttps://www.tipga.com/e/5d7bc80a3286fe6728569a07\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},"zh_TW":{"text":"原文連結：https://www.tipga.com/e/5d7bc80a3286fe6728569a07","html":"\u003cdiv class=\"originalLinkHintWrapper tOverflow\"\u003e原文連結：\u003ca href=\"https://www.tipga.com/e/5d7bc80a3286fe6728569a07\" 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